BGTC/HV20 · RETAIL
BTC Options Decision Desk · v4
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Today's Recommendation
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Confidence
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SUPPORTING
BLOCKERS
BTC Spot
$—
Binance
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24H High
$—
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24H Low
$—
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HV20 (ann)
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1-day: —
ATM IV
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Deribit nearest
Funding 8h
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perp BTCUSDT
Fear & Greed
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alt.me
BGTC Upside
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NOCTUA model
Now in IST
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IV/HV20 Regime PDF threshold 1.76 · backtest 2017–2026
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IV — / HV20 —
Sizing tier (PDF §4.3)
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Awaiting data
Ratio < 1.2 = calm (full size) · 1.2–1.4 normal (70%) · 1.4–1.6 caution (40%) · 1.6–1.8 reduced (20%) · ≥ 1.8 no-trade.
Threshold 1.76 is the 90th percentile of IV/HV20 historical ratios from 2017–2026; above that, realised vol overshoots 10% of the time.
Retail Seller Mode · $100 · 50× · 1× ATM straddle + 60× far-OTM wings PDF §2
⚡ Straddle-Financed OTM Wing Selector
Solves for OTM strike where 60× short premium ≥ 1.15× straddle cost AND touch prob ≤ threshold
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Next 24h Move Odds
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BGTC Live Forecast
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RANGER Band & 48h Price
RANGER
ATR-7 × (IV/HV20)0.2 × vol × DOW × F&G
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raw
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safe ×2.2
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ATR-7
48h Price · 1h candles
Evidence & inputs
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Signal confluence
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